Not since 1992, when Don Getty's Progressive Conservative government was polling in the 15-per-cent range, have Alberta Tories been so nervous.They're accustomed to periods of anxiety only when polls dip Tory support below 50 per cent; Premier Ed Stelmach's government is now wandering in the low to mid-30s. Catastrophic? Maybe. Irretrievable? Not yet. Recall that when Mr. Getty's government was at its lowest point, at least one famous poll indicated the New Democrats were approaching the cusp of power in this bastion of libertarian/neo-/paleo-con enterprise. A human gestation period later, the Ralph Klein Revolution swept into office by re-energizing the Tories and outrighting Laurence Decore's Liberals.Equally intriguing is that, as the allegiance to Mr. Stelmach's government erodes, support for the Liberals under Kevin Taft isn't increasing in a way that makes that party look like a serious alternative. Albertans, preoccupied with either making money or trying to figure out why they are not making the money everyone else is, are spilling into the "undecided" category - a clear sign that the old consensus is eroding and a new one may be about to be born in a radical way.That, after all, is our pattern of behaviour:Since its creation as a province in 1905, Alberta has been ruled in succession by Liberals, United Farmers, Social Credit and Progressive Conservatives.Every governing party has ruled for longer than 10 years. In the current case, the Tories have been in office since 1971.No party has gained power, lost it, then returned to power in a later election. In the case of the UFA and Socreds, the parties pretty much disappeared in a relatively short time.Parties have successfully reinvented themselves to revolutionize and avoid oblivion. Every time the governing party has been overthrown (admittedly only four times in 102 years), it was not defeated by the Official Opposition but by a new, unexpected agent. In other words, once you are a loser in Alberta, it has so far been impossible to become a winner.Neither the current governing party nor the Official Opposition has recent polling numbers that indicate strong levels of public confidence.Within this context and current conditions, it appears Alberta is primed for a significant change. People are open, politically lonely and available for the siren call of an alternative.Some will argue that this sense of infidelity might be different from the past as a result of the impact of immigration. But immigration is not new to Alberta. It has been a constant feature - except during the Great Depression (1930s) and the Great National Energy Program Recession (1980s) - that so far hasn't proved to have any diluting impact on the generally entrepreneurial culture. In other words, neither change in population numbers nor political party supremacy necessarily equates to change in people's inclinations.One suspects that most Albertans still hope Mr. Stelmach's government will give them a reason to believe.If not, the option on the left is that a coalition of New Democrats and Liberals will form to capitalize on Tory ennui. On the right, the options are: the Alberta Alliance, which, under the guidance of sole MLA Paul Hinman, outperformed the New Democrats in most Calgary urban ridings and finished second ahead of the Liberals in a great many rural ridings; and the Wild Rose party, which is still gathering signatures to make itself official but has the backing of credible people such as senator-elect Link Byfield. The fact that both the Alliance and Wild Rose are ignored by the major media does stir memories of the early days of Reform. But if that same magic is there, it's not yet apparent.Alberta is not a colonial annex to Confederation any more. It is a powerful player whose thump factor grows with every passing year. What is happening here isn't exactly clear, but trust that, when it takes shape, the impact will be profound. That is our way.